Tim Buckley: These are unprecedented times. We are living with the uncertainty, stress, and challenges of a global health crisis combined with an orchestrated economic shutdown.
We know the slowdown is not caused by a structural problem, but we don’t know how long it will last. Even epidemiologists can’t pin down when the virus will subside and we will return to some sense of normalcy.
In the meantime, unemployment is surging and the economic data will get worse. Prepare to hear double-digit unemployment numbers and significant contractions in GDP—20% or more for the second quarter.
But, don’t overreact and don’t try to time it. Remember the markets are forward looking and much of this news is already priced in. Sure, equity markets could get worse if the slowdown extends further, but also realize that the markets will rebound far before economic data improve. Beyond being lucky, you’ll find the